Source: Dispatch

By Ashley M. Wright
Air University Public Affairs

The recent turmoil in Pakistan surrounding the country’s election and relationship with the United States was the topic of a RAND Corporation International Policy Analyst’s speech to Air University’s Air and Space Basic Course students Jan.17.

Farhana Ali, who normally speaks to AU Squadron Officer College students about Sunni and Shiite differences, spoke on short notice about the political climate in Pakistan and future of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship.

“This was, in essence, a target of opportunity,” said Dr. Hank Dashinger, dean and educational advisor of Squadron Officer College. “It was a contemporary, current and relevant issue that we wanted to get in front of our students as quickly as possible.”

Last year marked a “year of change” for Pakistan, said Ms. Ali. The terrorism and international policy expert routinely provides commentary for the “New York Times” and CNN. “Many Pakistanis believe they are fighting American’s war on terror, which explains why there is a rising anti-American sentiment in that country.”

The U.S. government paid more than $10 billion to Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s Pakistan government, mostly for military operations, Ms. Ali said. Former General Musharraf, who came to power in a 1999 military coup, resigned his position as a military leader in December 2007 and leads the country for the next five years as the new president.

More than 700 al-Qaeda operatives have been captured because of the relationship between the United States and Pakistan. However, suicide bombings increased ninefold in the country from six during 2006 to the “unheard” level of nearly 50 during 2007, Ms. Ali said.

A series of events have mired Pakistan. While highlighting key events such as Musharraf’s suspension of the Supreme Court Justice in March and martial law imposed in November, Ms. Ali said the key event of the year was the sudden death of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who had returned to Pakistan — with U.S. and U.K. support — to participate in Pakistan’s next parliamentary election scheduled for January. “Her [Prime Minister Bhutto’s] death was not only a human tragedy, but a political tragedy for Pakistan. Her death left a political vacuum in the country and created a climate of chaos,” said the author of numerous scholarly articles on U.S. and Pakistani cooperation in the war on terrorism.

After returning from eight years of self-imposed exile in October 2007, the former prime minister immediately became a target of several assassination attempts. The fatal attempt on Ms. Bhutto’s life left several questions unanswered about the actual cause of her death and whether al-Qaeda is to blame. The CIA reported last week that the Agency believes al-Qaeda militants are responsible for the murder.

Ms. Ali advised waiting for the result from an independent Scotland Yard investigation before passing judgment on who is responsible.

Ms. Bhutto’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari, plans to run her Pakistan Peoples Party until her 19-year-old son, Bilawal, finishes his studies at Oxford University. Mr. Zardari has been the subject of numerous corruption charges and is unpopular within his own party. Furthermore, he has no political experience or clout, Ms. Ali said.

“My prediction is there will be no clear victor [in the upcoming election],” Ms. Ali said. “It’s a country where feudal power, tribal loyalty and money can buy votes from a largely illiterate population.”

So long as a strong feudalism system exists in the country, along with ethnic tensions, democracy will be weak, at best, she said.

As the popularity of President Musharraf wanes and no clear leader in the elections for Prime Minister emerges, the United States needs to appeal to the people of Pakistan, not its politicians, Ms. Ali told the audience of mostly young lieutenants.

She cited a recent poll that found 60 percent of Pakistan’s population rejects the Taliban even though 30 percent have sympathies. However, given previous electoral results, Islamists will unlikely gain significant votes.

“They are weaker today politically than ever before and historically have gained no more than 15 percent of the votes,” she said while emphasizing her doubts that Islamist extremists will take over the country.

“Democracy promotion in Pakistan must include a restoration of social values, such as an independent judiciary, a free press and other civilian institutions. Most Pakistanis, after all, value democracy and want to see a stable country,” she said.
A relationship should be between two countries rather than two leaders, she added.

According to Dr. Dashinger, Ms. Ali also spoke with members of the Air Force Culture and Language Center and AU School of Advanced Airpower Studies during her visit here. Through Project Air Force with the RAND Corporation, Ms. Ali continues to speak with students from various AU schools about issues affecting the Global War on Terror and differences in culture as she has for the past year.

Project Air Force’s mission is to “conduct an integrated program of objective analysis on issues of enduring concern to Air Force leaders.”

 E-mail this article to a friend

Tags: Air University, RAND Corporation International Policy, recent turmoil