Source: The Post

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Speaking at an international conference organised by the Turkish military in Ankara, General Yasar Buyukanit, the Turkish military chief stressed on Monday (March 10, 2008) that if President Musharraf lost his grip on Pakistan, the country could fall into the hands of a resurgent Taliban. He was of the opinion that turmoil and violence caused by the extremists could pave the way for the Taliban to seize control of the country and its nuclear weapons. He forcefully stated that Pakistan should be given strong support to guard against the advent of such an eventuality.

While expressing his apprehensions, the Turkish general said that groups such as the Taliban could control Pakistan if the current administration becomes ineffective – implying that such an eventuality could result in gaining control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, the interpretation of events seem like a mixture of realism and alarmism based more on media perceptions than the ground reality. However, it needs to be stressed here that the undertone of such remarks are indeed sympathetic and positive.

There is no doubt that the year 2007 has seen turbulence and turmoil, which appeared to be reflective of miscalculated pursuits. Added complications were inadvertently injected by the over-enthusiastic media. A reality check indeed cannot ignore the discontentment of the legal community and disgruntled tribesmen in parts of our tribal areas. Interested outsiders, including the foreign militants, appeared to have capitalised over the situation and managed to further inject complications in accordance with their own pursuits.

It is not the first time that Pakistan’s nuclear capability has been subjected to calculated censure by various interested quarters. The past has witnessed innumerable articles that were published in Western media, mostly in the US, which reflected the alarming assessments. Despite the assurances that were regularly given by the concerned quarters, the American media chose to highlight the dangers of our nuclear assets falling into the wrong hands. Most of these articles were based on conjectures and hearsay rather than any concrete evidence.

In addition, part of the campaign was the product of lobbies that are working to tarnish our country’s image. Cognizant of the inherent disadvantages and unattractive qualifications of Pakistan such as the only Muslim country in possession of nuclear weapons capability, concerted efforts were made initially to dissuade Pakistan from acquiring the forbidden technology and later pressures were exerted to roll back its nuclear programme. Still, it was frequently threatened to put under foreign control for the sake of overall security.

Many Pakistanis believe that not only India and the US are actively engaged in highlighting the dangers of Pakistan’s nuclear capability falling into the wrong hands, but sometimes they appear to be working collectively. Following the tragic events of 9/11 and the consequential vilification campaign against the Islamic world, the expression of anger against the Islamic world, including periodic demonstrations of disrespect to downgrade the rising tide of respect for Islam in various parts of the world, continued to surface in some parts of the Western world.

An additional factor that has frequently seemed to have influenced many writers in the Western media, according to many Pakistanis, revolves around the West’s failure to inject the desired level of stability in Afghanistan despite having injected so much money and stationing of their forces. Diverting from one’s own failure and putting blame on someone else is not a new technique. The American media has rarely explained why the American presence has been unable to stabilise Afghanistan.

Pakistani officials have repeatedly given assurances to the international community that the weapons are fully secure and there is no chance that they would fall into the wrong hands. According to reports published in a local daily, not only the operational chief in-charge of the arsenal has categorically stated that Pakistan has already stationed a large number of soldiers to keep the weapons safe but has also received monetary assistance from a friendly country to further enhance security.

Despite having taken so many security measures to keep these weapons out of reach of undesirable elements, the Western media seems to have chosen to raise alarms over and over again. Even positive statements are sometimes printed or highlighted in such a way that it generates a negative impression. Sometimes even the local newspapers print the headlines in a manner to reflect two views.

Turkish military chief’s statement appears to reflect the need to support and strengthen Pakistan with a view to enable Pakistan to maintain tight control over its nuclear assets. A weak and unstable Pakistan could create opportunities for undesirable elements to capitalise on the situation in order to realise their aims and objectives.

Alternative interpretation is that General Buyukanit was highlighting the creeping dangers in the light of Western interpretation of the situation. Given the incumbent situation, which is certainly not all that rosy, the Turkish general stressed that if President Musharraf lost his grip on Pakistan, the country could fall into the hands of the insurgent Taliban.

What seems to be rather intriguing is the attention attached to the abilities of the Taliban to gain control. To some of us it seems somewhat exaggerated. Besides, such interpretations totally ignore the abilities of the Pakistan Army to protect its assets. Admittedly, the Taliban has made gains during the last few months, which are primarily the product of Isaf/Nato’s failure in Afghanistan, but this does not mean that with the resurfacing of the Taliban the Pakistan Army has lost its abilities to handle them.

Many critics tend to project the developments in Waziristan section of the tribal area and Swat as indicator of Pakistan’s inabilities to effectively deal with the situation. This indeed is a simplistic view of the entire situation. As far as Swat is concerned, the Pakistan Army only went in during the last few months when the situation had become rather complex. But once the army went in, it quickly established its control with the exception of one or two sub-sections. Similarly, the situation in Waziristan is improving, though at a slower pace than what is desired.

The crux of the Turkish general’s apprehension revolves around the notion that if the administration proves ineffective, only then there is a danger that undesirable elements may control the country. The recent elections clearly proved that not only the institutions are working but the victorious leaders of different political parties have been demonstrating ample awareness of such problems and have also expressed their determination to deal with them on priority basis. My assumption is that once the new government is formed, it will start taking effective measures before any further deterioration in the situation.

The writer works for the Islamabad Policy Research Institute

 E-mail this article to a friend