Dawn Op-Ed by Adil Zareef

AS the incumbent government gears up to meet myriad challenges, Mangal Bagh is becoming the new recurring nightmare in the NWFP. He left a trail of bloodshed, pillage and mayhem when he attacked unarmed villagers in Sheikhan, near Peshawar, and demolished a 16th century shrine. Mangal Bagh later forced the famous Karkhano market shut for days, causing economic losses running into millions of rupees.

Recently he attacked another shrine in Khyber Agency and harassed women who traditionally pray there. Traffic in adjoining areas was brought to a halt for a few days as tribals protested against these excesses committed right under the nose of Pakistan’s mammoth security apparatus.

For some these incidents produce a sense of déjà vu given what has happed in Waziristan, Bajaur, Swat, Darra Adamkhel and now on the outskirts of Peshawar. The ‘star’ of the story is Mangal Bagh from Bara tehsil who heads the notorious Lashkar-i-Islam and preaches extremism on his FM radio stations. Mangal Bagh’s sudden rise, his swift success in setting up a parallel administration and the freedom with which his anti-vice squads challenge the writ of the state has convinced many of the political administration’s complicity in this new phenomenon.

The question is, what precisely is the strategy of the US and the Pakistani establishment in the tribal belt? Is the rise and rise of Mangal Bagh another ploy to destabilise the government? Or does it have more to do with securing supply lines for US forces in Afghanistan through the tribal belt courtesy a chosen proxy whose firing squads dispense ruthless ‘justice’? This is a repeat of what the Taliban did in Afghanistan in various war zones: total appeasement of the establishment, until things spun out of control and resulted in insufferable destruction. So is there more turmoil in store for the NWFP as the Lashkar flexes its muscles unchecked and gains ground in both tribal and settled areas?

The US policy for quick fixes and immediate gain results in disruption that leads to yet another cycle of destabilisation. Gen Naseerullah Babar was entrusted the US-supported Unocol oil pipeline project by the Benazir Bhutto administration that nurtured the Taliban. The US seldom learns lessons, so it repeats follies — like turning Iraq into the epicentre of Al Qaeda and jeopardising the American war effort in Afghanistan. But then empires seldom learn local wisdom and traditions. This goes to their own disadvantage, besides destroying regional stability and peace. So is the case with this clueless empire under the equally clueless leadership of George Bush.

Hardly a wonder then that whispering voices blame the US for the current turmoil in the tribal belt and on the outskirts of Peshawar where an extremist wields enormous power with a fleet of the latest SUVs (allegedly 500 in number) and sophisticated weaponry. Using a local bandit to terrorise proud, tradition-bound tribals is scarcely the best option for achieving political gains, and too of a short-term nature.

“The residents of Fata have become the objects of history instead of being the subjects of history,” observes Afrasiab Khattak, provincial president of the ANP. He believes that reform planned in 2001 and later abandoned in the wake of the so-called war on terror needs to be introduced. “The people resisting reform are not the tribals but those in the vested lobby in Peshawar and Islamabad that wants to maintain the status quo so it can squeeze the redundant system,” he adds.

The only way forward lies in the social, political and economic empowerment of people currently living in complete isolation from the ‘development agenda’ dispensed by Islamabad. “During BB’s previous government, Afzal Khan was minister for SAFRON [states and frontier regions division]. The moment he advocated political reform in Fata he was posted out within 48 hours, as minister for Kashmir affairs,” a bemused Afrasiab Khattak recalls.

There can be no socio-economic development in the tribal belt without social, political and judicial reform of the black colonial regulations that are ruthlessly exploited by the establishment to enslave the populace even in this day and age. “No economic development is possible until ‘ownership rights’ are restored,” argues Khattak. In 2001, the ‘reform agenda’ announced by the eager CEO Pervez Musharraf was meant to introduce local government and political and judicial reform while doing away with the notorious FCR that is manipulated by unaccountable political agents. There was a complete U-turn after Sept 11 and the word ‘reform’ was thrown out of the vocabulary.

“While the military has penetrated the traditional no-go areas, the political actors and systems have been dispensed with. Instead of giving breathing space to civil society, the opposite has been done, thereby creating a black hole where the gun rules. The resulting spill-over into all of Pakistan is only logical. Instead of firefighting we need long-term solutions,” asserts Khattak.

Will the new government stand up to the previous regime’s discredited policy? Going by the statements of the US administration, there is little hope for a reformist, sustainable policy that builds peace through consensus.

Adding to the existing socio-economic woes, the minister for finance has “warned of serious economic instability if the [new] government provides immediate relief to the public”. Meanwhile, the US has approved a package of F-16 fighter jets for Pakistan. Given the priorities of local and global actors and a preference for keeping the pot boiling, there is little light at the end of the tunnel for the traumatised people of the tribal areas. Indeed, all 160 million toiling Pakistanis remain at the mercy of brutal realpolitik.

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