Coalition politics — Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi

April 6th, 2008 Sana · No Comments

The strong bond among the coalition partners, especially the PPP and the PMLN, is based on the realisation that their cooperation will rehabilitate civilian political rule while their split will benefit the military, the bureaucracy and the intelligence agencies. The lessons of the years of political wilderness impel them to work together

Pakistan’s new political arrangement at the federal level is not only free from President Pervez Musharraf’s domineering influence but also represents the broadest-ever coalition of political parties in Pakistan’s history.

It includes the two most popular and nationwide political parties (PPP and PMLN), one regional-nationalist party (ANPP), and an Islamic party (JUIF). Three provinces (NWFP, Balochistan and Punjab) are installing coalition governments. Further, the PPP and MQM are exploring the option of setting up a coalition government in Sindh.

This ushers in an era of coalition-based and cooperative politics. Stability under this system depends on power-sharing among the political parties on the basis of a common agenda rather than unanimity of views.

This dilutes the individual party programmes and moves the parties towards an agreed political agenda which may expand as they learn to work together. The ‘on the job’ experience of coalition partners is crucial to shaping the future of their partnership.

The differences among coalition partners can be resolved or kept within manageable limits as long as they work toward consensus-building as members of a team whose success is viewed as dependent on the contribution of each member. However, if a partner in the coalition develops an aura of self-righteousness or comes to the conclusion that he can pursue his political agenda by himself, coalition arrangements will run into trouble.

Pakistan has had coalition governments in the past. During 1954-58, Pakistan had coalition governments at the federal level. A similar pattern existed during 1988-1999. Some of the provinces had two or more parties forming the government during 1954-58, 1972-77 and 1988-99.

However, the current coalition arrangements at the federal level include two major parties (PPP and PMLN) hitherto adversaries. They have also secured the support of two more parties and some independent members, making this the most representative government ever established in Pakistan.

The PPP and the PMLN are also establishing a coalition government in the Punjab. The coalition in NWFP is a remarkable achievement which provides the provincial government with a good opportunity to deal effectively with provincial issues, especially the fast spreading Islamic extremism and violence. Balochistan maintains its tradition of installing a coalition government; this time, moreover, the coalition is built on a wider support base.

The PPP and the PMLN appear to have learnt from their bitter experience under the Musharraf rule. President Pervez Musharraf used the state power arbitrarily to exclude Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif from the political process. Some laws were made to target them like the restriction on third-time premiership. The accountability process was also politically motivated.

The thunderous return of the PPP and the PMLN to power clearly shows that the role of the political parties and leaders cannot be excluded by administrative measures.

Not only General Pervez Musharraf but other military rulers before him also placed restrictions on political leaders with the objective of neutralising their role. They did not succeed.

Now, there is hardly any moral or political justification for President Musharraf to continue in office because his political order has collapsed. He is hanging on to power hoping that the political forces would soon get divided and the United States and the Pakistan Army would support him.

But there is no doubt that the coalition partners at the federal level want to get rid of Pervez Musharraf. And more importantly, this is not the only factor that keeps them together. The strong bond among the coalition partners, especially the PPP and the PMLN, is based on the realisation that their cooperation will rehabilitate civilian political rule while their split will benefit the military, the bureaucracy and the intelligence agencies. The lessons of the years of political wilderness impel them to work together.

Even if they contest the next elections independently, they will compete with each other within the limits of the constitution and law.

They may develop differences on policy issues but as long as they view partnership as serving their cause, they can resolve these differences. Their cooperation can also be adversely affected by internal problems in each party. Both parties have impatient people who are opposed to compromises with the other party while some also possess ideological aversion for the other party.

Another dimension, that of intra-party issues, pertains to group politics in each party. These problems have been more noticeable in the PPP than the PMLN. The delay in the selection of Prime Minister and the cabinet members was indicative of this. Similarly the PMLN is likely to face internal pressure on the distribution of rewards of power. But as long as the leadership of both parties maintain close interaction with its activists and second line leaders and pay attention to their concerns the parties may not face serious internal problems.

Political parties tend to face internal crises if the leadership assigns the highest premium to personal loyalty and ignores professional competence of its activists or their sacrifices for, and commitment, to the party. The appointment of a non-elected PPP loyalist as Advisor on Interior Affairs who is actually working as Interior Minister is a clear case of patronage for loyalty, although there are questions about his role in the1980s.

Similarly, the reported plans to install some former officials who earned dubious reputations during the PPP governments in the 1980s will affect the credibility of the new government. It is yet to be seen how the PMLN will distribute patronage in the Punjab.

In the long run, what will make or break the current coalition government is its performance in the economic domain. Can the government turn Pakistan’s elitist and cellular-phone economy into a people-oriented economy and help ease economic pressures on them?

In the short run, the issue of the judges will influence the future of the coalition. The delay in resolution of the issue can bring the government in conflict with societal groups, especially the lawyers. However, their restoration will of course cause a confrontation with Pervez Musharraf.

How would the government deal with Musharraf? The oath-taking ceremonies for the prime minister and the cabinet showed that the president and the political leaders would not be able to work together beyond a couple of months. The coalition may face problems with Maulana Fazlur Rahman who criticised the prime minister’s new agenda, ostensibly to extract more political dividends from the coalition government as well as protect his credentials with the Islamic elements.

The principal partners of the current coalition want this experiment to succeed in order to initiate new politics of cooperation, accommodation and sharing of power. This goal can be achieved only if the top leadership recognises that coalitions do not succeed without a sustained conscious effort on the part of its partners to make it a success. They should also recognise that coalitions often falter due to excessive use of patronage.

Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst