Source: Daily Times
Policies for FATA and Balochistan are most important and should not be formulated as a reaction to previous policies but rather on the basis of having learnt from them
Post-9/11, when the US struck the Al Qaeda-Taliban combine in Afghanistan, Pakistan became the anvil for the US-Northern Alliance hammer. While the attack was largely successful in its disruptive effect, it was not the ‘blitzkrieg’ it was supposed to be. In fact the limits of air power and hi-tech warfare were demonstrated as Al Qaeda and Taliban used the terrain and local support to their advantage to disperse.
Six years later, there is clear evidence of Al Qaeda-Taliban resurgence, most starkly manifested by the Taliban attack on the military parade in the heart of Kabul on April 27. One reason for the failure to stabilise Afghanistan, though by no means the only one, is the distraction of Iraq. Leaving perceptions aside, there are ground realities that cannot be ignored. There has been a geographic expansion of the Southern Afghanistan Taliban base into Pakistan’s western border areas both in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and parts of Balochistan. Home-grown local (Pakistani Tribal) Taliban control swathes of territory in the FATA. Just as this is a spill-over effect of the Taliban struggle against US-NATO-ISAF forces in Afghanistan so also there is a further spill-over of radical militant activity in the Pakistani areas adjoining FATA.
In the NWFP-administered Swat area the banned Tanzim Nifaz e Sharia Muhammadi (TNSM) launched a major violent thrust to take control over the entire territory ostensibly to enforce Sharia. The Pakistan Army thwarted this venture but the situation simmers even as the government has released the TNSM leader, imprisoned since 2002, as part of a peace agreement.
Even more ominous is the linkage that seems to exist between religious radicals in Pakistan’s urban areas and those in FATA. This is the reason why the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating from the tribal areas was able to target Pakistan’s military and other government agencies and forces in the heart of the major urban centres. The fact the TTP has demanded that their affiliates in Pakistan should not be touched is proof of this interconnection — as is the fact that one of the Taliban demands is release of the Lal Masjid cleric and those suspected of involvement in Benazir Bhutto’s assassination.
There are several other destabilising facts that must be added to this simmering cauldron.
The magnitude of poppy growth in Afghanistan and the national and international networked mafias that control the drug and weapons trade, the impunity with which resources and people of various nationalities move across Afghanistan, the millions of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, the porous Pak-Afghan border, the external and local sponsorship of subversive elements in Balochistan, the failure of the ‘containment and military force’ policy, the failure of peace agreements, the disconnect between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the root causes of the problem, the US ‘concern’ over the new ‘dialogue plus’ policy adopted by the elected government in Pakistan and finally the political and socioeconomic instability that is growing in Pakistan.
There are also indications that violence is spreading to Afghanistan’s northern, western and eastern areas. The Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell clearly stated this in his testimony to a Senate Committee in February. Initially the US relied on the arc formed by the Northern faction-dominated government in Afghanistan, the US-NATO-ISAF forces and Pakistan to contain and resolve the Taliban-Al Qaeda. As the militant activity spread to FATA, the US continued this policy of reliance on Pakistan as the southern bulwark — except that it pressured Pakistan to clear the safe havens in their tribal areas and carry out selective attacks using Predator drones.
With Pakistan’s urban areas coming under attack, the violence in Swat, the subversion in Balochistan, political and civil society unrest, increase in socio-economic pressures, assassinations and suicide bombings in urban areas and a declining governance situation there was concern about Pakistan’s internal security. This led to debate on the security of Pakistan’s nuclear assets and suggestions that the US should think of contingency planning and discussions with India on the consequences of an unpredictable situation in Pakistan.
A former US Ambassador to India suggested this in a talk at New Delhi last month. The southern part of the US-sponsored containment arc was being given to India as a back-up or fall-back option. Rather than being a negative development, this thinking underscored the enormous importance of Pakistan as an ally and a powerful nuclear-weapons state whose stability and viability was vital.
The clear message to Pakistan was that it had to put its house in order because, in a globalised world, a strategically located nuclear-weapons power could not be perceived as a failing state — especially a state with well-developed institutions that could take steps to stabilise.
There are several positive aspects of the presently evolving situation in Pakistan that need to be flagged:
The strong legislative, organisational and structural steps and control measures that have been taken to secure strategic assets regardless of the political environment, the vibrant civil society and environment that emerged prior to the elections, the largely free and fair elections held on February 18 notwithstanding fears of intervention by the military or the intelligence agencies, the political coalition that has come about after the elections and the tortuous process by which this coalition is strengthening itself to sustain itself, the comprehensive policies being forged for the western border areas, the efforts to combat the economic and power crisis triggered by international price hikes and the fact that the military as a declared policy has retreated from the political scene and is consolidating itself as an institution.
Once these problems have been overcome Pakistanis can look forward to political stability, responsive governance and sustained economic growth on the basis of a sound macro economic structure, an assertive and independent judiciary, a powerful independent media and a proactive civil society with the middle class as its backbone and a vastly improved internal security situation.
To turn this future into reality the urgency and priority should shift to establishing political and administrative structures that ensure good governance, rule of law and response to the socio-economic pressures that the people are facing.
All elements of what the Chief of Army Staff called the ‘national command structure’ are important and each has its own importance and utility; targeting one weakens all. Policies for FATA and Balochistan are most important and should not be formulated as a reaction to previous policies but rather on the basis of having learnt from them.
Foreign, economic and internal security policies are vitally important. Within these policies consideration should be given to initiating bilateral strategic dialogues with India, Iran and Afghanistan to remove the trust deficit that creates disconnects. The relationships with the US and China are extremely important but we also need to move into strong relationships with the UK, the EU and Russia even as we strengthen existing relations with Japan, the ASEAN countries, Saudi Arabia and the Muslim World.
The highest priority must go to an inward look that leads us to steps that will give us internal strength and cohesion — if we do not have exploitable vulnerabilities there will be no external interference. Pakistan has the resilience, capacity and will to confront all challenges. Image is important—we cannot be seen as a country with food shortages and a high suicide rate because there is no reason why we should be.
The answer may be private sector involvement to create a ‘safety net fund’ that serves as a last resort for those who have nothing left. This is not an impossible undertaking.
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Tags: al qaeda, balochistan, FATA, Jehangir Karamat, Militants, military, Policies, US
2 responses so far ↓
1 Ilyas khan baloch // May 11, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Dear Sir/Madam,
Patriotic way, to prevail “Democracy in Pakistan”…?
Democracy as a system of governance and interest representation demands respect for dissent and opposition. It recognizes the principle of majority rule and guarantees protection of minorities. Democracy also builds faith in electoral contestation to gain public office and gives legitimacy to political parties as primary instruments for acquisition and transfer of power from one set of individuals to another. Democracy teaches us equality, tolerance and justice without any discrimination to establish welfare society based on peace, progress and prosperity.
Therefore, it is essential to denounce the killing of innocent people in Pakistan, since it look excellent and compassionate but are we really feel sorry for that killing of innocent people ? if it is so, then we must eliminate the route cause of suicide killing and other hatred, being a democratic Islamic country and people, we must think in the light of teaching of our prophet (PBH) because killing for killing and bloodshed of innocent people, due to one pretext or other can never gives flowers in return, peace cannot prevail in this circumstances we must adopt democratic ways and means to settle the differences with who so ever they may be.
In reality, factual reason behind this hate is not born by us, but borrowed by us for the sake of US pleasure “Aa bel muje mar”. Because, those who were supported, financed, equip and trained by the USA and its allies, and who fight in the name of freedom of Afghanistan from occupied forces, were not aware about the truth behind their fighting, their fighting, was to protect the interest of USA, they were fighting a war of USA against USSR, for the political gain of USA (petrol resources around the Afghanistan and get easy excess for ,Iran, china) and when they realise their national interest was going to be robed, they dare to refuse, what kind of robbery was that is mentioned in the recently release book by the France authors.
“ French authors Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasquie recently published a book entitled Bin Laden: The Forbidden Truth which tells of the negotiations for oil pipeline rights in Afghanistan that collapsed in August 2001 after the U.S. told the Taliban: Accept our offer of a carpet of gold or you’ll get a carpet of bombs.”
Despite the fact that, “Bush administration was expecting from Taliban, to cooperate with their plans for exploiting the oil resources of Central Asia. US were sure until August, that the Taliban, as a source of stability in Central Asia, would enable the construction of an oil pipeline across Central Asia.” But, all of a sudden a trusted partner of USA, turn in to so-called terrorist?
But fortunately, the Taliban realize that their national interest was going to be robed by USA; they dare to refuse, to accept US conditions for their support in exploitation of oil resources from central Asia.
As a last hope in the talks between the Bush, administration and the Taliban which began in February 2001, shortly after Bush’s inauguration. A Taliban emissary arrived in Washington in March with presents for the new chief executive, (an expensive Afghan carpet). But the talks themselves were less than cordial. Brisard said; “At one moment during the negotiations, the US representatives told the Taliban, ‘either you accept our offer of a carpet of gold, or we bury you under a carpet of bombs’.”
USA and its allies attack the Afghanistan under the immediate aftermath of September 11, there were press reports—against, largely overseas protest and hiding the factual reality behind the attack on Afghanistan, they almost destroyed remaining infrastructure and killed thousands of innocent people, such as they attack the Iraq under wrong pretext of having the WMD and against the will of the world to capture the oil resources and acquire a place for their continuous presence in the middle east for their political gain. The United National has lost its credibility as neutral authority to intervene and protect the small and week nation against foreign aggression but instead ,UNO, proved as failed organization playing in the hands of the brutal power intimidating and capturing the countries, in order to grab their, resources such as OIL and to attain political influence, while killing their innocent people under one pretext or other in the name to “demoralized” them and to accept the terms and condition suitable for the occupier.
At present they (US/NATO) are fighting their war of military/political interest in the region, involving the dependent country like Pakistan, under intimidation of sever consequences to bear, if refuse to support them; The current demand draft of 11 points, submitted by the so-called democratic imperialistic state of USA is a clear sign to a sovereign government of Islamic Republic of Pakistan to accept and obey as matter of master’s voice. This act is a kind of intimidation and direct involvement in the internal matter of a sovereign state. This act create a question as if we are really a sovereign state or part and partial of USA,
Because, they want Pakistan to fight and kill his own people under one ploy or another, want to drag them in to the chaos and uncertainty, so that they can further impose more condition on the Pakistani Government to follow them, dip and dip until armed forces of Pakistan loose the trust of the Pakistani people and come openly to fight against his own people like they did in east -Pakistan, this is the movement they (USA) are waiting for, so that their, in time financial help to the traitor can play the role to disintegrate the strength of the nuclear country.
This is a moment invite us all for serious consideration weather to keep our independence in tact or bow down before this mighty evil, democratically bullying to accept the terms and condition of his interest, or in other words be ready to loose our independence for ever.
How? a patriotic person can repeat, the past mistake for supporting the fight, for external political and regional gain instead, we have already paid to much price in the form of social unrest, ethnic conflicts, drug- addicting and arms problems through Pakistan, If, we have to survive as a Sovereign Islamic Nation, in this world with dignity and respect as a free nation, then we must adopt and adhere the following essential change immediately;
• Decentralize the power on the basis of division to empower the people at grass route level without any delay.
• Allow free, complete education with technical knowledge to every able citizen.
• Establish research institute at divisional level to encourage the youth with god gifted skill to develop and those who are interested in research work in all field, it is necessary step towards self sufficiency in technology.
• Provide guarantee for job opportunity to all man and women after education/technical training.
• Rapid industrialization of small, medium and cottage industries be allowed at the divisional level with total protection to capitals and facilities to flourish.
• A cooperative farming should be introduced at divisional level for large scale agriculture product and development of agro-industries.
• Supply of controlled price utilities could only be possible if we follow the mass industrial and agriculture production
• Provide separate working facilities for production and services to women, so that majority women force of 52% can join the force of national production/services.
• Insurance coverage should be provided all working man/women along with complete medical treatment coverage.
• Better residential facilities be provided to all
• Export oriented foreign policy should be adopted and find markets for our excess products in the regional country surrounding us, and provide them market place for their excess products.
The right way to reverence to Martyr is to eliminate the causes after the incidents. If we can redress the route cause after the suicide killing, we can save many lives in future. The only way out is the change of system, the route cause of all kind of grievances, the time is to empower the Pakistani at grass route level to eliminate the socio-political injustice and strengthen the unity within the society at large, and closing the door for outsiders or intruder to penetrate in our society because of social unrest.
Pakistani people are left at distant from the corridor of power. As this policy is denial of right of Pakistani igniting the unrest within the society, let the people of Pakistan, to rule their country according to their aspiration and desire to build, which can provide equal opportunity to all without any discrimination for the establishment of welfare society. Only the society base on tolerance, equality and justice can be the real guarantee for the prosperous and strong Pakistan
See www.idp.org.pk
Ilyas khan Baloch
Organizer Islamic democratic party
2 Sohail // May 25, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Dear Sir,
Jehangir Karamat Sb is known for his versatility and straightforwardness. We happen to have talked this subject in 1999 mainly having a perspective in view that of Pakistan’s very existence in new world order. It is true that the redrawing of boundaries in middle east and central/south asian regions has been under hot discussion elsewhere, but luckily, americans have fallen prey to there own obsession of being unipolar leader of the globe. This has delayed the program and now americans are heavily burdened under their own problems. OIC and other states have not yet read the writing on chinese wall; chinese have done that. They have gone to reclusion till 2030 and are slowly building themselves up for the proper time.
I fully agree and endorse Jehangir Sb’s point that we need to review the whole situation professionally and futuristically. We have to review our relationship with all stakeholders. Above all, in my personal opinion, we must review and revamp the ideological front in a meaningful way for our 96% population. Make it a safe haven for 100% people and exude the islamic ways in order to remove the differences and strengthen socio-economic fabric of our society. We need to bring harmony and homogeneity in the true sense and plan effectively to improve our ratings at all front in the comity of nations.
I appreciate the comments by Ilyas Baloch Sb. He has very rationally brought forward the main areas for improvement. I would suggest that a multi-tiered time-bound approach for improvement on all socio-politico-economic parameters should now be taken. But first of all, we need to be over with the present day crises.
Some one has to leave the arena honourably otherwise, I do remember the wrath of people when Najib had to bear the brunt. I wish that with least bloodshed, the situation stabilizes.
Let us all pray. Jehangir Sb! With your vast experience and nothing to lose, let us give this nation the best of our ideas and then pray for divine help.
Best Regards.
Sohail
(a retired technocrat)
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