In light of the recent IRI survey (83% Pakistanis want Mr Musharraf out), I would like to put this question to Mr Nawaz Sharif, his voters and all supporters of democracy: Why doesn’t he offer Mr Zardari (effectively) the NRO as a constitutional amendment? After all, isn’t the NRO the only thing that keeps Mr Musharraf relevant as far as Mr Zardari is concerned.
 
The NRO and its ‘fruits’ will be even more difficult to reverse as a constitutional amendment than it is in its present form of a Presidential Ordinance. I believe most members of parliament will vote for it if the date of the amnesty is brought forward to, say, 18th February 2008 (or, perhaps, 27th December 2007). In case Mr Sharif fears a backlash amongst his supporters, that’s where his skill as a politician needs to be utilised. The common perception is that PML-N voters voted against Mr. Musharraf and the NRO, and for the restoration of the judiciary. The voters now face two options: either swallow the bitter pill of accepting the NRO as a constititutional amendment (as a means of making Mr. Musharraf irrelevant to Mr Zardari), or, suffer both the NRO and Mr. Musharraf being shoved down your throat. It should not be too difficult for a good politician to sell this simple choice.
 
As for PPP supporters, while they might see the NRO as a necessary, albeit less than ideal, redress for the injustice done to Mr Zardari in particular and other politicians in general, they too have no great love for Mr. Musharraf. Many will support a strengthening of the NRO by its incorporation in to the Constitution while shedding no tears for a drowning Mr. Musharraf having the last straw he was clutching snatched from him.
 
Mr Sharif has to decide whether he wants to take the unpragmatic (and in some ways selfish) stand of opposing the NRO and thereby allowing the down but not out dictator to continue to use it to bribe the majority party in parliament, or, concede the NRO thereby making Mr. Musharraf useless to Mr. Zardari and openning the possibility of him being tried for his self-confessed crimes against the Constitution. In our history, plenty of politicians have been - rightly or wrongly - accused of corruption, kicked out of government, tried, jailed, even killed. We might never get a better opportunity to set a desperately needed precedent by trying a man who used the uniform that he wore in service of the nation to sabotage the thing most sacred to the state - the Constituion.
 
There is a feeling that Mr Zardari would rather continue to prop up Mr. Musharraf than accept such an offer from Mr Sharif, since he values having the gratitude of Washington and the ‘establishment’ far more than that of Mr Sharif’s. If that’s the case, Mr Sharif should still publicly offer the NRO as a constitutional amendment, as the price for getting rid of Mr. Musharraf. If Mr Zardari still refuses and carries on making excuses, he would be exposed as not only being guilty of seeking protection of the NRO from a repeat of the wrongful incarceration he has already suffered, but, also damaging democracy trying to please Washington and the ‘establishment’. Mr Sharif can only gain from this in terms of political support and sympathy.
 
Another view holds that both Mssrs. Sharif and Zardari are far too acutely aware of the rivalry between the two in the effectively two-party system that Pakistani politics is. If they cannot forget their differences and unite, for now, to face the common enemy, then they would be behaving like the bucks who were more interested in fighting each other over the harem than to look out for the lion. They will both be picked off, one by one. Similarly, if it is true that Mr Zardari is more interested in winning the approval of Washington and the ‘establishment’, then he is being no cleverer than a deer trying to make sure that he is not first on the lion’s menu.
 
As for those who keep warning us of the likelihood of the army taking over, true democrats can only welcome such a politically suicidal move by a currently unpopular GHQ (as far as any meddling in politics is concerned). At no time in the past have so many Pakistanis found themselves seriously considering the damage done by arbitrary, military rule and the importance of the rule of law, independence of judiciary, supremacy of the consitution and of parliament. Will the army risk losing any remaining legitimacy in the eyes of the people of Pakistan and consider yet another take over under these totally new conditions? They’ll either have to close down (for a very long time) the plurality of media thats there now, or, be damned forever under the glare of the mushrooming multitude of ever present TV cameras, endless and ruthless talk shows etc. The camera has proven to be far more powerful than the pen in a country where not many are big on reading.
 

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