Source: Daily Times
American raids inside Pakistan will only play into the hands of Taliban and Al Qaeda sympathisers and place the Pakistan army in a nutcracker situation. This cannot be a winnable strategy in the war against terrorism?
Admiral Mike Mullen has made this frank evaluation after almost seven years of unending, no-holds-barred, brutal war in Afghanistan: “I’m not convinced we are winning it [the war] in Afghanistan”. But to revive hopes and lift the morale of his country’s political leadership and his troops, he added, “I am convinced that we can”.
How? Some reflection on what are emerging as the contours of his war-winning strategy is in order.
Historically, Afghanistan has been a graveyard of foreign armies. It will be a first in history if the Americans, a foreign power, are able to subdue the Afghans and impose their brand of nationalism, statehood and political leadership on them. It is a hazardous and ambitious task.
Perhaps the American strategist derives his optimism from the changed times and calculus of regional and global power. But on previous occasions, when the other two great powers invaded Afghanistan, the operational environment was not the same.
The myths, traditions and heroic folklore of Afghan history remain the same, no matter who the new friends and invaders are, or however noble their mission might appear to themselves. The current power imbalance in Afghanistan has perhaps not been witnessed anywhere in the world at any time: a superpower equipped with the most destructive military technology looking to ‘right the wrongs’ versus the insurgents in the Pashtun regions of Afghanistan.
I have deliberately avoided mentioning the Taliban, because the label is a narrow and unreal characterisation of the ethos that has shaped the insurgency in the Pashtun-dominated regions of Afghanistan. ‘Taliban’ is a convenient term, and makes the adversary identifiable, portraying him as anti-everything that stands for civilised and humane notions of social organisation. The portrayal is not entirely untrue in view of the conduct of the Taliban in the border regions of Pakistan or in Afghanistan during their regime.
But that is not the point. What I want to suggest is that the Taliban couldn’t operate on the Pakistani or Afghan side of the border without a significant degree of support from the Pashtun population. It is good propaganda to say that the population has been taken hostage, but a concrete analysis of the situation must take into account the sympathies of the locals in areas where insurgents operate and seek sustenance.
If the battle for hearts and minds in Afghanistan’s Pashtun areas has not entirely been lost, it has been messed up big time. Many observers of Afghanistan, both journalists and scholars, have for a long time argued that American strategy in Afghanistan has been badly handled from the very beginning. Three things stand out very clearly.
First, the Afghan-Americans in high advisory and ambassadorial roles played traditional Afghan factional politics in smoothing the way for Hamid Karzai and the shift of power to the Northern Alliance, as if they and not the American forces had dislodged the Taliban. Instead of seeking national reconciliation, the new power group went for the politics of vengeance. Yes, Pashtuns were present in the corridors of power, but in small numbers and on the margins.
Since the parliamentary elections, things have improved for the Pashtuns. But the residual resentment has continued to fuel unease. There is an almost unanimous view that Hamid Karzai has delivered very little on governance, and state- and nation-building.
The second important reason for unrest in the Pashtun regions is that development assistance has been too little and arrived too late. This failure has turned Afghanistan into a narco-state. Even if a small share of the billions that opium production and trade generate ends up in Taliban hands — which it does — it would be enough to keep ISAF and NATO forces tied down for decades.
Finally, the insensitivity to civilian casualties has taken a heavy toll on the American image in Afghanistan. NATO forces entered Afghanistan amid the deafening thunder of strategic bombing and daisycutters, and declared that their mission was to free Afghanistan from the scourge of the Taliban and rebuild the Afghan state and nation. At least in the Pashtun parts of Afghanistan, this mission is now seen very differently.
There is no greater loss in war than losing the sympathy and support of the people you think you are helping. When they see your presence in adversarial terms, it means more than half the battle has been lost.
This is the dilemma the Americans and the international community face in Afghanistan. There is definitely great distress and war fatigue among the American political and military ranks, with acknowledgement of the bitter truth that the war on terror has not gone right. But getting it back on the right track would require a better grasp of the complex region they have landed in, by fate or misfortune, or under illusion of a grand strategic design.
Extending the war effort to the tribal areas of Pakistan is not a great idea. At best, it will destroy Taliban and Al Qaeda hideouts, keep them on the run and cut their control and communication lines. It is uncertain if these missions can be accomplished without too much collateral damage and also without severely damaging the political standing of the new Pakistani government and the public prestige of the armed forces of Pakistan.
Pakistan has done a better job of destroying Al Qaeda in the region than the United States and Afghanistan or other allies. As stated in the Daily Times editorial of last Saturday (“US Strategy: excessive and unnecessary”, September 13), 90 percent of Al Qaeda arrests have been made by Pakistani intelligence and security forces. Pakistani state and society have clearly drawn the battle lines against Al Qaeda and the Taliban and fought with greater resolve than any other country.
American raids inside Pakistan will only play into the hands of Taliban and Al Qaeda sympathisers and place the Pakistan army in a nutcracker situation. This cannot be a winnable strategy in the war against terrorism.
The war against terror is also our war. We have been the first line of defence for the world — has anybody counted the victims of suicide bombing in Pakistan, or the number of our brave troops slaughtered by terrorists? This war is going to be long and difficult but we all have a stake in winning it. It will require patience, better understanding of the complexities of the region, and the respect and trust of partners like Pakistan. All else will be only a strategy of defeat.
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Tags: afghanistan, al qaeda, America, Army, raids, Taliban, War
3 responses so far ↓
1 Cabool // Sep 19, 2008 at 7:21 am
The following is an excerpt from an article:
IRAQ, Afghanistan and Pakistan
Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – has political aims and it seeks to capture and control territory. The TTP is sponsored by the CIA, which provides it money, weapons and equipment. However, all the three countries are similar as the American aim is the same – to fragment the country and impose unpopular/ weak government who will bend to their will.
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> Although the story came out several weeks ago, the people Pakistan are still stunned by the revelation of the TTP being CIA sponsored. The public first came to know of this in the newspapers that during the visit of Prime Minister Gilani to the USA, his staff showed evidence of CIA support to TTP. It took some courage to tell the USA that the ‘foreign support’ to Baitullah Mehsud came from the USA. One thought it would put the USA on the defensive that those being accused and targeted by America for cross-border raids have been trained and supported by the US. Instead, the USA ratcheted up its propaganda against Pakistan. Baitullah Mehsud moves freely throughout the region promoting terrorism that will justify American actions. His men possess the most-advanced communication and possibly even satellite intelligence. Pakistan army took a long time to read the signs because it just could not believe that the USA could resort to such diabolical stratagem
> against its ‘ally’.
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> The Army Chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani announced on September 10, that the coalition forces would not be allowed to operate inside Pakistan. His statement came within hours of the testimony by US Chief of Joint Staff, Admiral Mullen, that the strategy for the war in Afghanistan had been revised and that targets in Pakistan would be struck without prior notice or warning to Pakistan. General Kayani expressed outrage at the US helicopter raid near Angor Adda on the Pakistan Afghan border that lasted 30-minute; three houses owned by the Wazir tribesmen were the target of the raid that killed 15 people, including women and children. What added insult to injury was the report that Prime Minister Gilani’s National Security Adviser Major General (retd) Mehmud Durrani formally wrote to his US counterpart Steve Hadley, on September 5, warning that Pakistan would not allow any foreign forces to operate on its territory. In his letter, Durrani made it clear
> that the rules of engagements of the coalition forces were well defined and there was no provision that allowed the US/NATO forces in Afghanistan to operate inside Pakistan.
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> On Thursday, September 11, the Pakistan Army was given permission to retaliate against any action by foreign troops inside the country. The same day, the Pakistan ambassador to the US also met some national security advisers of the Bush administration and got the assurance that the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan would not operate inside Pakistan or launch any strike. As if to rub salt in the wound, the same night the coalition forces launched another missile attack on Miranshah, killing more than 12 people. What is happening? What is the USA up to? More important, what can Pakistan do?
> Clearly, the USA is stung by Pakistan discovering who is the real enemy. Pakistan has decided to liquidate the TTP and is succeeding with popular support. The USA should have been satisfied that the Pakistan Army is pursuing the TTP, but it is not. Clearly, the TTP is the excuse not the target. The American objective is to destabilise Pakistan. I refer to the article titled ‘The Destabilisation of Pakistan’ by Prof. Michel Chossudovsky of Global Research, Canada, in which it was revealed, l before 18 February elections, that the USA sees an opportunity in the elections to advance its agenda and is supporting the terrorists inside Pakistan towards that end. He wrote:
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> ‘Washington will push for a compliant political leadership, with no commitment to the national interest, a leadership which will serve US imperial interests, while concurrently contributing under the disguise of ‘decentralization’, to the weakening of the central government and the fracture of Pakistan’s fragile federal structure.’…. ‘U.S. Special Forces are expected to vastly expand their presence. The official justification and pretext… to extend the ‘war on terrorism’. Concurrently, to justify its counter-terrorism program, Washington is also beefing up its covert support to the ‘terrorists.’
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> It has become apparent that the insurgency in the FATA and elsewhere in NWFP is aided and abetted by the US. It wants to weaken the control of the federal government over the provinces and regions of Pakistan and it does not care whether it is achieved by Islamists or by ethnic nationalists. It supports the BLA as well as Baitullah Mehsud. It maintains its contacts with the MQM, the ANP, Baloch Nationalists as well as the JUI. It came to court the PPP as it concluded it was not overly concerned with ‘national interests’. The economic conditions have been deteriorating so fast that the economy is being described as close to ‘melt-down’. The only remaining condition yet to be met for ‘destabilisation’ to become unstoppable is the ‘demonisation’ of the Pakistan Army.
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> That explains why General Kayani’s defiant statement was quickly followed by another Predator attack. Now the ball is in General Kayani’s court; will he be the one to blink first? Will he be forced by his civilian masters – Zardari and Gilani – not to follow up on his promise and become subject of ridicule. But Pakistan has options. First and foremost, the objectives of the so-called ‘war on terror’ would have to be revised; it must henceforth deal exclusively with clearing FATA and Swat of TTP, and pacifying the area. The approach of the people of Pakistan towards the US has been transformed by the raid on Pakistan’s soil. Until now, they thought that the US presence in Afghanistan was no threat to Pakistan. They had a benign view of the war despite the horrendous civilian casualties. They thought the war brought funds for development and democracy in its wake. Now the support for US presence in the region is zero. The people see the USA as the
> main enemy; the so-called extremists are the proxies and surrogates of the USA.
> Second, the firm forthrightness of the Army Chief has made him popular and brought admiration for the armed forces, instead of being demonised. The PPP, who felt secure in power after the elevation of its co-chairman to the office of the President, is likely to feel threatened. The Prime Minster has already said that his Government would deal with the situation through diplomacy. But if the bombs continue to rain in FATA and more helicopter raids occur, the people would be outraged and demand retaliation. What would the Government do? It is time to be cool and act; diplomacy rarely works when it is mere talk. Since most of the raids are by air, Pakistan needs to deploy anti-aircraft weapons to protect outposts and villages. The USA and NATO would need to be informed that violation of air space would be considered ‘hostile’ and dealt with as such. US and NATO forces in Afghanistan depend on supply from or transit through Pakistan for a number of things.
> None need to stop but accidents do happen. After all, the USA did not solicit the assassination of Benazir Bhutto; they just let Baitullah Mehsud go through with what he was planning any way. After deployment of anti-aircraft weapons on the border and ‘go slow’ strike on the tail from Karachi to Kheybar, the ball would be in the US court. It could take another step on the escalation ladder or sense might prevail. However, Pakistan cannot afford to blink first. There will be rows between the civil and military leadership and it is hard to tell if the military advice would be accepted. But the Zardari Administration is already on the wrong side of the public opinion on the issue of restoration of the judges made dysfunctional by General Musharraf. He will be on the wrong side of the public opinion once again if he did nothing in the face of mounting casualties of soldiers and civilians a the hands of the USA.
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2 leo // Sep 19, 2008 at 1:02 pm
very soon pplz of pakistan will realize that musharaf was the best choice for pakistan.we are not thinking as a nation. our intrest is regional.while india is thinking globaly , we are thinking now only district levels due to our so called politician.STILL we have time we should think pakistan first like musharaf .forgive our political enemies ,sit down all togather & make plan with the help of our allys in europe like france & germany.come on pplz the real enemy of pakistan is india
3 Ramesh Panday // Sep 19, 2008 at 3:05 pm
@leo
Fix your home and leave us out of this. You are a messed up people. You hate your living and worship your dead. And since we (India) are a living nation you hate us also. I am really sorry for the people of Pakistan. They need somebody to hate and fight against because life is unbearable.
I was in Pakistan in 2005 and shocked at the number of people who worship graves of dead people. I am sure you people will love Musharaf more when he is in grave.
India is our mother and yours too. We have been on this land for thousands of years and will be for many more thousand years. You and I both. India not the country but India the subcontinent of so many countries. India the land where life is celebrated and lived in so many colorfull and beautifull cultures. Where people have created and adopted all the great religions of the world in the hope of achieving peace and harmony.
Since you are unabale to make friends with us I would suggest that you dont to go so far as Europe to find allies and friends. You should make a commonwealth with Iran and Afghanistan. The worlds biggest oil and gas reserves are here. Plenty of water and land to grow food. Lots of rivers to make electricity. Mountains of limestone to make cement. Heaps of coal to warm your cold bodies at least since nothing can be done about your cold hearts.
The French and the Germans can help you and believe me you need HELP.
Do something instead of worshipping the graves of all the good sons of your soil whom you despised when they were living killed in cold blood.
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